Politics

Read most of Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail 72 today. I really think the people who basically look on HST as "drugs and radical communism" sort of miss the point. It seems like some people are just like oh hunter s thompson he took drugs. and he hated all the corporations and the nazi fuckers, man. Which he did, but i just think it misses the point. At his heart, Hunter S Thompson was an idealist. He really believed in the American Dream. He just thought it was being fucked up by Americans. Seriously I really think the man deserves more than he's got in terms of respect/fandom.

I was also thinking about the upcoming election cycle - and i realized, we really have no idea who the FUCK the next candidate on either side, but ESPECIALLY not on the Dem. side, is going to be. In '72, there was one leading candidate - Muskie - and some dark horse took it. This year there's three leading candidates and 5 others. Plus, there's no incumbent. And, we have the internet now, which really sort of magnifies the power especially of the sort of movement another candidate would need to catch fire. I think the Internet in regards to this sort of thing is really like a steamroller. It's incredibly powerful in its influence, but it's also a bitch to steer. So in other words, if some dark horse candidate gets going, shows strong in the early primaries, and gets the internet behind him, anything could happen.

I am going to make a few predictions for posterity here, just for the fuck of it, you know? if anyone wants to bet on these i will, but i wouldn't expect anyone else to give a fuck.

Firstly, Hillary Clinton will not be the next Democratic candidate. It's about even chances, I think, that it won't be any of Clinton Obama Edwards - and I really don't think Clinton can get it. If I had to pick I would say Obama, I think.

Secondly, the Republican nominee... Honestly I have no idea. The one thing I would be willing to bet is that it won't be McCain. I would guess Romney, but iunno.

Thirdly, the next president will (obviously, I think) be Democratic. If the Republican opponent is McCain, assuming the Democrat doesn't move too far center, the margin of victory will be huge because of Iraq.

Finally, Nicolas Sarkozy will defeat Segolene Royal on May 6.